Same-store ADR rose in every bedroom segment over the trailing twelve months, so this is not a demand problem. Matched on home, stay month and booking lead time, July 2027 is contracting at $1,198 against $1,677 for July 2026. The 2027 season is roughly 2% written and already 28% light in peak months, and a booked night cannot be repriced.
Pacer connected directly to Seabrook's Track account on August 3. This audit is built from that live connection and from Pacer's own copy of the same reservation record. Nothing in Seabrook's pricing was changed to produce it.
August 3. Direct API access to units, reservations and nightly rates.
What the completed year shows, what the 2027 book is doing, and why.
Protect the Fourth of July week and remaining peak 2027 inventory.
Group homes on bedrooms and sleeping capacity together, not bedrooms alone.
The 2027 book read like for like, every week, through the season.
This audit reads Seabrook's own booking record, pulled directly from Track rather than from any pricing tool's reporting layer. It covers every reservation from August 2023 through the forward book into September 2027. The finding that matters is not in the completed year. It is in the book being written right now for 2027.
Two sources were used and reconciled against each other: Seabrook's Track PMS by direct API pull, and Pacer's warehouse copy of the same reservation record. Where this audit states a rate, it is the rent actually contracted on a booking, not a calendar list price.
The diagnosis is specific. Trailing twelve month ADR rose in every segment, so this is not a demand problem or an execution problem in the completed year. Matched on unit, stay month and booking lead time, July 2027 is contracting at $1,198 against $1,677 for July 2026. The failure is confined to forward pricing.
Same-store, trailing twelve months against the twelve months before it. Only homes live in both periods are counted.
| Segment | Nights, LY to TTM | ADR, LY to TTM | ADR Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 2 BR | 14,356 → 13,371 | $215.34 → $232.69 | +8.1% |
| 3 to 4 BR | 24,857 → 24,633 | $420.51 → $441.62 | +5.0% |
| 5 BR and up | 3,881 → 3,760 | $933.77 → $953.29 | +2.1% |
Rate held and improved across the book while nights stayed flat. This matters because it removes the easy explanations for what follows. Seabrook does not have a demand problem, a product problem, or a distribution problem. What it has is a forward pricing problem, and the completed year is the control that proves it.
Same-store cohort: 41,476 of 42,086 reservations. Source: Pacer warehouse, analytics.reservation_details, is_same_store flag. Cancellations excluded.
Same home, same stay month, and both bookings made 180 or more days before arrival. Unit mix, seasonality and lead time are all held constant, so what is left is rate.
| Stay Month | Homes | ADR, 2026 to 2027 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| July | 14 | $1,677.45 → $1,198.45 | -28.6% |
| August | 4 | $1,850.63 → $1,331.03 | -28.1% |
| September | 1 | $792.03 → $602.10 | -24.0% |
| June | 11 | $865.85 → $785.80 | -9.2% |
| May | 6 | $1,232.51 → $1,245.46 | +1.1% |
2027 is between 0.5% and 2.6% booked against 2026's final reservation counts. July is 1.7% written. The pattern above is set by the earliest and highest paying guests, and the rest of the season is still open.
Comparing 2027's current book against 2026's completed season shows ADR up in every month. That reading is wrong, and it is worth understanding why before anyone reaches for it.
2027 on the books against 2026 actuals reads up 2% to 62% by month. Only early bookers have booked 2027, and early bookers pay the most, so the comparison is measuring who has booked rather than what they paid.
Hold the home, the stay month and the booking lead time constant. Do that and July 2027 reads $1,198 against $1,677 for the same homes booked equally early for July 2026.
| Booking Lead Time | Reservations | ADR | Avg Nights |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 days or more | 650 | $801.25 | 4.44 |
| 61 to 180 days | 3,625 | $500.29 | 3.72 |
| 31 to 60 days | 3,168 | $365.39 | 3.30 |
| 8 to 30 days | 3,836 | $304.74 | 2.92 |
| 7 days or fewer | 1,939 | $241.59 | 2.55 |
Seabrook's homes are grouped for comparison by bedroom bucket plus a single hand-entered score. There is no term for how many guests a home sleeps, which is the variable that most determines what a beach house can charge.
| Bedrooms | Units | Sleeps Fewest | Sleeps Median | Sleeps Most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 BR | 124 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 BR | 68 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 BR | 25 | 10 | 14 | 18 |
| 6 BR | 5 | 14 | 15 | 22 |
Sleeps 18. The median four bedroom at Seabrook sleeps 10. It is larger than 67 of the 68 homes in its own bedroom class and is priced against homes half its capacity.
These two are each other's only comparable. A group of two has no outside reference, so when both move the same direction nothing corrects it. Both were rescored from 3 to 15 in the same pass.
Including the two largest in the book: a six bedroom sleeping 20 and a nine bedroom sleeping 18. Nothing defines what those are measured against.
The configuration export contains five different versions of the quality score, each with a complete set of database update statements. Of the 122 homes present in all five, every single one carries a different value depending on which version is read.
A score that ranges from 3 to 20 for the same home across versions is not measuring quality. It is not tracking occupancy and it only loosely tracks revenue. Because that number selects the comp group, and the comp group sets the price, an unstable score produces an unstable rate for reasons no one can trace after the fact. Eagles Nest and Stargazer both range from 3 to 15 across the five versions.
Trailing twelve months by stay date. Reservation share and revenue share are shown separately so channels that over-index on value are visible.
| Channel | Reservations | Res Share | Revenue | Revenue Share | ADR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct | 10,843 | 82.0% | $15,068,004 | 83.9% | $419.72 |
| Airbnb | 1,760 | 13.3% | $2,049,288 | 11.4% | $395.54 |
| Vrbo | 526 | 4.0% | $754,767 | 4.2% | $460.50 |
| Booking.com | 89 | 0.7% | $92,120 | 0.5% | $357.05 |
An 83.9% direct revenue share is exceptional and it changes how pricing should be reasoned about. Seabrook is not a price taker inside an OTA marketplace, it is the demand engine for its own town. Rate logic that leans on market comparables is answering a question Seabrook mostly does not face. Vrbo is worth noting separately: it carries the highest ADR in the book at $460.50 on only 4% of reservations.
Fee load is normal for this coast at 37.2% of rent, against 39.9% for Grays Harbor County and 44.5% for Ocean Shores. What stands out is that it does not flex.
| Length of Stay | Reservations | Rent per Night | Fees per Night | Guest Total per Night |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 night | 156 | $139.21 | $284.96 | $425.07 |
| 2 nights | 3,829 | $307.01 | $186.21 | $494.49 |
| 4 nights | 2,630 | $435.68 | $145.30 | $581.48 |
| 7 nights | 246 | $568.61 | $134.58 | $707.85 |
Rate moves 59% between seasons and the fee moves 12%, so the fee is a near constant wedge sitting outside the pricing strategy. And being largely fixed per stay, it falls hardest on short bookings: $186 a night on a two night stay against $135 on a seven night stay. Those two night stays are 3,829 reservations, the bookings that fill midweek and shoulder gaps.
Of the nights lost since 2024, more went missing in March than the book lost on net. The same 192 homes, March stays only.
| March | Reservations | Nights | ADR | Rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 793 | 2,521 | $247.60 | $624,187 |
| 2025 | 551 | 1,698 | $283.39 | $481,199 |
| 2026 | 469 | 1,466 | $310.18 | $454,729 |
Rate rose a quarter and volume fell nearly half, so revenue finished down 27%. This is a steady three year slide rather than a single bad year, it holds across direct, Airbnb and Vrbo in proportion, and the same number of homes took part each year, so it is not a distribution or inventory story. One caveat on the size: Easter fell on March 31 in 2024 and April 5 in 2026, which inflates the 2024 base in the last few days of the month. The three year trend line is the cleaner read, and it points the same direction.
Same-store revenue decline against the prior twelve months, filtered to homes where rate rather than availability is the driver. Homes whose nights collapsed while their rate rose were excluded, because those are inventory losses and not pricing failures.
| Home | Nights Prior | Nights TTM | ADR Prior | ADR TTM | Revenue Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oceanaire | 75 | 22 | $1,745.71 | $1,416.20 | -$99,772 |
| Sunset Retreat | 153 | 107 | $1,331.14 | $1,239.44 | -$71,044 |
| Tidewater Cottage | 165 | 75 | $323.50 | $306.92 | -$30,358 |
| Beach Therapy | 193 | 101 | $267.54 | $231.14 | -$28,291 |
| Ciao Bella Beach | 227 | 178 | $469.35 | $452.22 | -$26,047 |
| Togadera | 137 | 128 | $1,521.11 | $1,436.74 | -$24,489 |
These six lost both nights and rate at the same time, which separates them from the rest of the decline list. Oceanaire is the sharpest case: it held a $1,745 rate on 75 nights last year and now sits at $1,416 on 22. Each of these needs a rate and minimum stay review before the 2027 season prices, not after.
Seabrook's most valuable guests book close to a year ahead and pay an $801 average nightly rate, more than three times the last minute buyer. That cohort is writing the 2027 book right now, at 28% below what the same homes earned last July. The single highest value move is to put floors on peak 2027 dates before the rest of that season contracts, because a booked night cannot be repriced and roughly 98% of 2027 is still open.
Pacer Revenue Management · jon@pacerrev.com · pacerrev.com